Assessing effects of climate change on ponderosa pine forests in California’s Sierra Nevada

Ian McCullough is from the UCSB Bren school and will be presenting on his PhD research. Join us for this timely talk on climate change and California forests.

Co-author credits: Frank Davis, Lorraine Flint, Alan Flint, John Dingman

Abstract: Climate change has emerged as a potent threat to forests worldwide, resulting in heightened concern for the sustainability of timber resources, ecosystem services, structure and function. In this study, we investigate the effects of long-term climate change on the growth and distribution of ponderosa pine in the Sierra Nevada of California using tree-rings and statistically downscaled climate models. We focused initial efforts on a small, declining population at Tejon Ranch, near the species’ southern range limit. Subsequently, we incorporated published tree-ring chronologies from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank to assess climate-growth relationships along a Sierra Nevada latitudinal gradient. Climatic controls on growth have varied historically across the gradient. Although precipitation was the primary limiting factor at all sites, more northern sites were more sensitive to fall temperatures, whereas southern sites were more sensitive to climatic water deficits (measure of unmet evaporative demand for water). Given that trees cannot live where they cannot grow, we are currently exploring ways to use the climate-growth relationship to infer the potential future distribution of ponderosa pine based on locations of favorable growing habitat.

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July 1: Emotions in Scientific Work and Scientific Creativity

The sociology of emotions and the sociology of science arose concurrently (circa 1975-present), but connections between these subfields have been rare. Existing research pleads for greater integration and contextualization. This talk will synthesize and critically assess eight decades of research on emotional aspects of science. Taken together, extant literature indicates that emotions pervade science as a practice, profession and social institution. Emotions support the ability to perceive and observe empirical patterns and relationships, and to make specific types of knowledge claims. They are elemental facets of scientists’ career evaluations and work life, and their influence on the research process informs and consequentially impacts the form and content of scientific knowledge. Collective emotional states and affective relationships are also essential for scientific collaboration and for fomenting large-scale collective action in the form of scientific social movements. Finally, emotions gave original impetus to science as a distinctive social institution, and continue to support it by acting as agents of social control in the scientific community. Overall, research on emotions and science is rapidly emerging as a generative area of research in its own right, and has the potential to significantly advance general sociology.

Dr. John Parker
ASU/NCEAS

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Looking for hotspots while the world gets hotter: multi-species genetic data inform landscape-scale conservation in the face of climate change in the San Joaquin Desert of California.

Global climate change can create patterns of biodiversity where once-widespread species become restricted to small islands of persistence, commonly called climate refugia. Species can subsequently recolonize the intervening spaces between the islands, masking the historical range restriction. Advances in molecular genetic technology now allow us to see the signature of these historical restriction events. In our ongoing study of desert vertebrates in the San Joaquin Valley, we are layering patterns of population subdivision from multiple species into a composite map of historical population centers. We have significant population subdivison as well as pattern concordance among some species, suggesting past refuges in the Panoche Hills and the Carrizo Plain. A parallel study projecting the distribution of the blunt-nosed leopard lizard following the current climate change event shows both spots as potential refugia, suggesting the tantalizing possibility that contemporary hotspots may serve as future redoubts.

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Michael Westphal
Bureau of Land Management
Hollister Field Office, CA

IPCC, Oceans and a 2°C warming target

Next month, the global science community will come together ahead of the COP21 of the UNFCCC in December to discuss the key issues concerning climate change. Discussion will include a focus on the ocean. The ocean is critical to life on Earth through its regulation of atmospheric gases, stabilisation of planetary heat, and provision of food and resources to well over 4 billion people worldwide. I will start with a peek at the processes for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC, including the roles of the authors, editors and expert reviewers, coordination across chapters and working groups and assessment of the literature. AR5 included a number of oceans chapters for the first time, which identified serious risks to marine ecosystems, fisheries, and coastal livelihoods. Focusing on these, I’ll discuss the key findings, updating with recent knowledge, with particular reference to the 2°C global warming target.

Elvira Poloczanska
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Brisbane, Australia
Global Change Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia

CSIRO Hobart -    - photo by Bruce Miller 4/2008

CSIRO Hobart – – photo by Bruce Miller 4/2008

 

Extending risk and cumulative impacts assessment to include life stage considerations

Roundtable for next week will be presented by Emma Hodgson, a graduate student in the School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences at the University of Washington, Seattle.

Abstract:

Marine species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Ecological risk assessment is commonly used to judge the consequence of novel stressors to species, but usually without consideration of the life history of organisms. Most marine species vary throughout their life history in their spatio-temporal distributions in the water column, their responses to external pressures, and their level of contribution to the population overall. Better incorporating our understanding of those differences between life stages provides an opportunity to advance our understanding of the consequences of stress at the population level. This work advances approaches to ecological risk assessment and cumulative impacts assessment by explicitly incorporating life stage exposure, sensitivity, and importance to population growth rate.

Emma in the wild

Emma in the wild

What goes up must come down: Implications of increasing productivity for aquatic food webs    

Join us for our June 3rd Roundtable with Colette Ward, who will be presenting on her PhD research!

What goes up must come down: Implications of increasing productivity for aquatic food webs    

Ecologists have long sought to understand the effects of productivity on community structure, and the question remains of pressing importance given contemporary patterns of anthropogenic change. Extensive debate has revolved around bottom-up and top-down hypotheses for community response to productivity, with the latter now dominating our conceptualization of this question in aquatic ecosystems. Key to this discourse is the principle that, in the absence of bottlenecks to vertical energy flux, top-down control is a fundamental response of communities to rising productivity and becomes stronger across productivity gradients.  Here I show that this principle, when projected onto commonly occurring food web motifs (community modules), readily predicts common violations of fundamental assumptions of classical top-down hypotheses, and, by extension, that community responses to rising productivity are not conserved across productivity gradients but are instead context-dependent.

Using 23 large marine food webs I show that food web responses to productivity arise from within-food chain processes at low productivity and increasingly from multi-chain processes with increasing productivity.  This shift unfolds as primary production is increasingly directed into bottom-up controlled detritus channels, subsidizing generalist predators, which in turn exert top-down control on herbivores in an apparent trophic cascade.  Using theory and empirical data from whole lake and marine food webs I show that the effect of productivity on food chain length (FCL) is also context-dependent: FCL should increase over ranges of low productivity and decline over ranges of high productivity as increasingly top-heavy biomass pyramids favor omnivory; at intermediate productivity, FCL should be driven instead by ecosystem size.  Overall this work suggests that, in contrast to conventional thinking, mechanisms of aquatic community response to productivity are not conserved across productivity gradients and are instead readily predicted by a simple community module framework.

Colette in the field

Colette in the field

KNB data search tool demonstration

UPDATE: Here are the links Lauren mentioned in her talk.

Slides: https://docs.google.com/a/nceas.ucsb.edu/presentation/d/1zdZLh3YRIXWsxXFNuo1c6N7hqgbn_KFzL9_ztPm1HC4/edit?usp=sharing
Provenance/Workflow dataset: http://search.test.dataone.org/#view/urn:uuid:bf71c38b-22b2-469e-8983-734ec0ab19cb
KNB: https://knb.ecoinformatics.org/#data/page/0
Download Morpho: https://knb.ecoinformatics.org/#tools/morpho
R DataONE library: https://releases.dataone.org/online/dataone_r/

We have a great tech roundtable on May 27!

Lauren Walker, a programmer based at NCEAS, will be leading an informal demonstration of the KNB: Knowledge Network for Biocomplexity, an international data repository and DataONE member node. She will demonstrate how to submit a dataset to the KNB via an online tool and through the DataONE R client.

She will also give a demonstration of the DataONE online search interface, which queries all 24 DataONE member nodes, using the same web software as KNB. This will include a preview of the upcoming scientific data provenance features in DataONE.

Lauren will open the roundtable up for feedback, suggestions, and to hear what you would find most useful with these kinds of tools.

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Green infrastructure on the ground: The politics of aquifer replenishment in Los Angeles

Sayd Randle, Doctoral Candidate in Environmental Anthropology from Yale University, will be presenting the roundtable for May 20th, 2015. Come learn about green infrastructure contributions to groundwater, an increasingly important issue in our drought-stricken state.

Abstract: The City of Los Angeles imports roughly 90% of its potable water supply from beyond city borders, and relies on local groundwater for the remainder. Environmentalists have long advocated for increased groundwater augmentation through rainwater capture and infiltration around the city homes, streets, and parks the sit above the basins. Recent drought conditions and surface water adjudications have turned policymakers’ attention to these techniques for producing an increased, “more secure,” in-city water supply. This paper uses a political ecology framework to examine the politics of reconfiguring quotidian city spaces to restock groundwater stores, drawing on fieldwork among city bureaucrats, environmentalists, and homeowners undertaking retrofits.

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A Framework to Improve Data Attribution and Acknowledgement?

As scientific projects grow more collaborative, data citation and data attribution has emerged as challenging issue. Sophie Hou will be presenting her poster on this topic and leading a discussion on how scientists might look to the movies to improve data attribution and acknowledgements.

See Sophie’s Presentation

Abstract: As scientific data volumes, format types, and sources increase rapidly with the invention and improvement of scientific capabilities, the resulting datasets are becoming more complex to manage as well.  One of the significant management challenges is pulling apart the individual contributions of specific people and organizations within large, complex projects.  This is important for two aspects: 1) assigning responsibility and accountability for scientific work, and 2) giving professional credit to individuals (e.g. hiring, promotion, and tenure) who work within such large projects.

This presentation will provide an overview for the concept of data citation, its current practices, and the strengths and weaknesses of the current data citation methods when applied to climate model dataset.  Using the NCAR Global Climate Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (CFDDA) Hourly 40km Reanalysis as a case study, the presentation will also demonstrate the creation and the result of a detailed data attribution.  Analogous to acknowledging the different roles and responsibilities shown in movie credits, the methodology developed in the study could be used in general to identify and map out the relationships among the organizations and individuals who had contributed to a dataset.  Finally, discussion questions will be presented in order to consider how this framework could be applied to create data attribution for other dataset types beyond climate models datasets.

Sophie with her poster

Sophie with her poster

EVOS/GoA data projects: challenges and successes

Ever wonder that the Gulf of Alaska projects are and why we care about such a specific region here at NCEAS? Come find out at the next NCEAS roundtable! I will give a brief overview of the Gulf Watch Alaska Project and the role NCEAS has played in the ecological research up there.

Data archiving and maintenance was rather prehistoric in the 1980s when the Exxon Valdez oil spill occurred in Price William Sound. Therefore, wrangling historic data in “the last frontier” has proven to be quite the adventure! Our group will be writing two papers based on our experiences: 1) data recovery and archiving and 2) data collection for synthesis work . I’ll be introducing these papers and asking for feedback and suggestions on direction, format, etc. Hope to see you there!

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Jessica Couture, MS
National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis
University of California, Santa Barbara
couture@nceas.ucsb.edu